Monday, August 27, 2012

Economic, social and environmental uncertainties just keep on growing

7.30 - ABC: Australian Broadcasting Corporation

Broadcast: 27/08/2012

Reporter: Bronwyn Herbert

The proposed gas processing plant at James Price Point near Broome in Western Australia is facing growing uncertainty on economic, social and environmental fronts.

11 comments:

  1. Lots of uncertainty about to keep Barnett busy running everybodies companies for them.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/wall-street-journal/winners-and-losers-at-port-hedland/story-fnay3vxj-1226459260973

    WESTERN Australia's bold plans for new ports to export iron ore are in trouble. So, a review of capacity at Port Hedland's existing harbour has sent a strong signal on which companies will be the big winners if demand and prices of the steelmaking material stabilise.

    And no wonder,unemployment rising in China.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/economics/china-job-loss-fears-grow-as-industrial-profits-fall/story-e6frg926-1226459001699

    Increasingly narrower profit at China's industrial companies could lead to a rise in unemployment, as recent data showed the world's second-largest economy continued to slow and there are no obvious signs yet that it is bottoming, economists said.

    And it is spreading around the region.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/economics/fallout-from-slowing-china-hits-neighbours/story-e6frg926-1226458458128


    THE slump in China's appetite for Australian exports, which is ringing alarm bells for the mining industry, is also hitting its Asian neighbours that are the next biggest markets for Australian goods.

    China is the top export target for most Asian countries, as it is for Australia.

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  2. The Wilderness Society is having a look at a legal challenge to the gas hub,but as Peter Robinson says,"the chatter going around is that Woodside will announce it's FID before Xmas as they know it is not profitable,rather than wait another 6 months.'

    This would allow Woodside to move on with other things,like the Eastern Mediterranean.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-08-23/woodside-ceo-will-consider-u-s-oil-assets-including-bp-fields.html

    Coleman, an Australian citizen who joined Woodside in May 2011 after 27 years with Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM), believes that Woodside can’t generate “top quartile” returns based on its existing projects, James Bullen, a Sydney-based analyst at Bank of America Corp., wrote in a report yesterday.

    “But in a very competitive M&A environment, which is being dominated by big-spending national oil companies, an accretive deal for existing resources will be highly challenging,” forcing Woodside to look for riskier exploration assets, according to the analyst’s report.

    ...

    http://www.pennenergy.com/index/articles/newsdisplay/1734820206.html

    Officials in north Cyprus, backed by Turkey, say Cypriot drilling is illegal because the plans have gone ahead without taking into account their competing claims to the island and surrounding waters. They have called on the companies to halt drilling, and on Cyprus to freeze further licensing.

    Turkey has threatened to send its navy. To underscore its displeasure, in recent months Turkey has erected a large oil and gas exploration rig above Sinirustu, a village near the coast of northern Cyprus, and festooned it with flags.

    ''Maybe war could explode again here,'' said Fikret Akan, 29, a Turkish-speaking resident of Sinirustu, who works at a fuel depot in a nearby coastal town. ''Turkey, Israel and the United States all could start fighting over these resources.''

    THEY MIGHT NEED MORE THAN "HOSTILES" AND "LOCKFART" TO GET THEM OUT OF THAT ONE.

    The drilling also has become entangled in a bitter rupture between Turkey and Israel. Once friends, the countries have been at loggerheads since an Israeli commando raid two years ago on an aid vessel bound for Gaza called the Mavi Marmara. Nine Turks died in the raid.

    Israel has since turned to Cyprus as a regional partner, signing defense and cooperation agreements this year partly aimed at protecting their overlapping gas fields.

    In May, the tensions between Turkey and Israel spread to the skies above Cyprus, when the Turkish Army command said its fighter jets had chased an Israeli plane out of northern airspace. That same month, the Cypriot government denied a Turkish news report that Israel planned to deploy 20,000 commandos in Cyprus to protect Israelis working on energy projects.

    Turkey has insisted that its military presence in the eastern Mediterranean consists of regular patrols and training exercises, in accordance with international law.

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  3. A WEE GRAB BAG FROM ENERGY NEWS BULLETIN.

    BHP, WOODSIDE to lift Stybarrow


    Friday, 31 August 2012

    BHP Billiton has revealed plans to boost oil output from its Stybarrow joint venture with WOODSIDE, offshore northwest Western Australia, advising federal regulators it wants to drill an exploration well 40km from the NINGALOO MARINE PARK

    ...

    Browse trainees set sail on career


    Friday, 31 August 2012

    ITS future may be under a cloud but Woodside’s Browse LNG development in northwest Western Australia is already paying off for THREE indigenous trainees.

    ...

    victims


    Thursday, 30 August 2012

    THE growing shale gale in the US has claimed its first victim, with Russia’s Gazprom withdrawing from its $US20 billion ($A19.4 billion) Shtokman Arctic venture. With increased LNG supplies likely to come into the market, traditional gas monopolies are set to feel more pain. By Gomati Jagadeesan

    For Gazprom, it has been long time coming.

    Even before the shale boom, the economics of the 3.9 trillion cubic metre Shtokman – Putin’s flagship energy project – were tenuous at best.

    It became thoroughly unsustainable afterwards, especially considering much of the Shtokman gas was destined for the then-growing US LNG markets.

    While it is definitely a strategic shocker for Russia, for the other Shtokman partners, France’s Total and Norway’s Statoil, it is a relief.

    It allows them a way to escape the increasing costs of developing the project.

    Shell had earlier exited the project.

    For Statoil, Shtokman was increasingly becoming a liability. Earlier this month it wrote off a $336.2 million investment, choosing to invest in North American oil and gas projects instead.

    Incidentally, Statoil also emerged as the highest bidder, winning the most leases in the latest round of offshore acreage releases in the US.

    ...

    http://www.rigzone.com/news/oil_gas/a/120382/PTTEP_Fined_Over_500000_for_Montara_Oil_Spill_Disaster?rss=true

    The spokesperson said that the company was found guilty on four charges. The first three charges, each of which carries a maximum penalty of $567,000 (AUD 550,000), fall under Clause 9(4) of the Offshore Petroleum and Greenhouse Gas Storage Act 2006. The fourth charge, which carries a maximum penalty of $56,760 (AUD 55,000), lies under Section 569(1) and it relates to failure to ensure that operations were conducted "in a proper and workman-like manner and in accordance with good oilfield practice."

    PTTEP was facing a maximum penalty of $1.8 million (AUD 1.7 million). The magistrate however recognized that PTTEP took on full responsibility for the incident and that the company had made every effort to transform its operations and culture. In addition, the magistrate also acknowledged that the company had no prior incident record, the spokesperson added.

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  4. ONLY ONE PROBLEM WITH THIS....INDIA IS BUYING INTO GAS PLAYS IN THE US AND ELSEWHERE....AND THE GAS IS GOING TO BE HALF THE PRICE OF AUSTRALIAN GAS.

    http://blogs.wsj.com/dealjournalaustralia/2012/08/31/asias-dash-for-gas-still-has-legs-says-bain/

    By Ross Kelly

    Too much natural gas may never be enough for Asia, according to Bain & Co.

    The consultancy believes a business case remains for construction of at least a few more multi-billion dollar gas-export projects in Australia.

    A recent slowing in China’s economy, rising cost pressures, and the potential emergence of competing natural gas supplies from North America and East Africa has sparked concerns that Australia’s liquefied natural gas, or LNG, sector is far too crowded

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  5. FORREST HAS MORE SKIN IN THE GAME.

    WHY.

    HE IS TRYING TO OUT DO THE INCREASING AMOUNT OF SHORTSELLERS OUT TO SHORT FMG.

    http://www.smh.com.au/business/forrest-puts-more-skin-in-game-20120831-255vi.html

    AND NO WONDER - WHAT A MESS.

    http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/newshome/14725419/budget-shocks-in-iron-ore-price-woe/

    The tumbling iron ore price threatens to punch a $1.5 billion hole in the State Budget, putting widespread public service lay-offs, cuts to services and delays in major projects on the agenda.

    The March election could be a battle of austerity with Premier Colin Barnett and Opposition Leader Mark McGowan facing a tide of red ink from the mining downturn that is already hurting the WA resources sector.

    Analyst UBS estimates the 30 per cent drop in the spot iron ore price in the past two months has cost the State $150 million in lower royalties since July 1.

    By the March 9 election, even with a small recovery in the iron ore price, the cost to the Budget could be more than $1 billion.

    For the full year, the WA Budget, based on current trends, would be short by $1.5 billion.

    ...

    http://www.smh.com.au/business/predictions-take-a-bleak-turn-in-negative-season-20120831-255vr.html

    IT'S not only miners talking down the future. This year's reporting season, which ended yesterday, has been the most pessimistic in seven years, according to Goldman Sachs, with almost half of companies lowering their expectations for the year ahead.

    Against that, fewer than one in five companies lifted earnings forecasts with a week to go, and even those were far from bullish.

    ''Adding to the negativity, the size of the positive upgrades is also the lowest in the past seven seasons,'' said Hamish Tadgell, a Goldman Sachs analyst.

    The gloomy portents continue a trend of companies being more conservative in their disclosures.

    ...

    http://www.theage.com.au/business/ore-slump-hits-home-20120831-255v8.html

    AUSTRALIA'S largest miners will suffer a collapse in earnings and come under severe funding pressure if the current weakness in commodity prices persists, according to analysts.

    Benchmark iron ore prices - which peaked at around $US190 a tonne last year and were at $US134 a tonne as recently as two months ago - continued on their sharp downward trajectory yesterday, falling another 1.8 per cent to $US88.70 a tonne, levels not seen since the financial crisis.

    In a research note to clients, Macquarie said iron ore majors BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto stood to suffer ''massive'' earnings cuts of between 50 to 80 per cent, if commodity prices remained at current levels over the next

    year. Laying bare the extent of the bets staked on the sustainability of China's economic miracle, under the same scenario, Fortescue Metals would potentially see its entire earnings for the year wiped out.

    Advertisement

    UBS said the falling iron ore prices ''exposed the margins of all Australian iron ore producers''.

    UBS's analysis, based on a $US93 a tonne spot price, showed BHP and Rio Tinto only receive about $US77 a tonne for their iron ore - still enough to generate a healthy profit margin of $US34 and $US40 a tonne respectively for their low-cost operations.

    But Fortescue's margin has already been crunched to $US9 a tonne, according to the UBS research team led by Glyn Lawcock, and would dip in the red if iron ore prices fell further.

    Mr Law said that if iron ore prices remained at current levels, BHP Billiton's earnings would fall by 33 per cent, from $15.5 billion to $10.4 billion, next year. For Rio Tinto, earnings for the same period would halve, down from $13.2 billion to $6.6 billion.

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  6. GIVEN THOSE PREDICTIONS THERE IS NO WAY KLOPPERS IS GOING TO THROW MONEY AT JPP.

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  7. SO IF THEY DO CAN IT,WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO THE GRAND ALLIANCE THAT HAS BEEN BUILT AROUND THIS FIGHT TO SAVE JPP?

    IF ONLY WE COULD GET THIS OUT IN SUCH A WAY THAT THE MULTI NATIONALS AND THEIR HIGH FLYING POLITICAL MATES COULD NOT DENY IT ANY LONGER.

    http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/global-warmings-terrifying-new-math-20120719

    ...the 327th consecutive month in which the temperature of the entire globe exceeded the 20th-century average, the odds of which occurring by simple chance were 3.7 x 10-99, a number considerably larger than the number of stars in the universe.

    ...

    Scientists estimate that humans can pour roughly 565 more gigatons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere by midcentury and still have some reasonable hope of staying below two degrees. ("Reasonable," in this case, means four chances in five, or somewhat worse odds than playing Russian roulette with a six-shooter.)

    This idea of a global "carbon budget" emerged about a decade ago, as scientists began to calculate how much oil, coal and gas could still safely be burned. Since we've increased the Earth's temperature by 0.8 degrees so far, we're currently less than halfway to the target. But, in fact, computer models calculate that even if we stopped increasing CO2 now, the temperature would likely still rise another 0.8 degrees, as previously released carbon continues to overheat the atmosphere. That means we're already three-quarters of the way to the two-degree target.

    ...

    The Third Number: 2,795 Gigatons

    This number is the scariest of all – one that, for the first time, meshes the political and scientific dimensions of our dilemma. It was highlighted last summer by the Carbon Tracker Initiative, a team of London financial analysts and environmentalists who published a report in an effort to educate investors about the possible risks that climate change poses to their stock portfolios. The number describes the amount of carbon already contained in the proven coal and oil and gas reserves of the fossil-fuel companies, and the countries (think Venezuela or Kuwait) that act like fossil-fuel companies. In short, it's the fossil fuel we're currently planning to burn. And the key point is that this new number – 2,795 – is higher than 565. Five times higher.

    ...

    We have five times as much oil and coal and gas on the books as climate scientists think is safe to burn.

    ...

    Yes, this coal and gas and oil is still technically in the soil. But it's already economically aboveground – it's figured into share prices, companies are borrowing money against it, nations are basing their budgets on the presumed returns from their patrimony. It explains why the big fossil-fuel companies have fought so hard to prevent the regulation of carbon dioxide – those reserves are their primary asset, the holding that gives their companies their value. It's why they've worked so hard these past years to figure out how to unlock the oil in Canada's tar sands, or how to drill miles beneath the sea, or how to frack the Appalachians.

    ...

    WOULDN'T IT BE NICE.

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  8. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-08-31/spineless-creatures-at-risk/4237464

    One-fifth of the "spineless creatures that rule the world" may be at risk of extinction, according to a new study.

    The 87-page report found the rising human population is putting ever more pressure on creatures like slugs, spiders, jellyfish, lobsters, corals, and bugs such as beetles and butterflies.

    The report said that invertebrates - creatures that have no internal skeleton - are facing loss of habitat, pollution, over-exploitation and climate change.

    The study, produced with the International Union for Conservation of Nature, could also have implications for humans.

    "The invertebrates are the ecosystem engineers," said Ben Collen at the Zoological Society of London (ZSL).

    "They produce a lot of the things that humans rely on and they produce them for free."

    The services they provide - helping humans whose growing numbers threaten their survival - include water purification, pollination, waste recycling, and keeping soils productive.

    For instance, earthworms recycle waste and bees pollinate crops.

    ...

    The study said the level of threat was similar to that facing vertebrates - creatures with internal skeletons - including mammals like blue whales and lions as well as reptiles and birds. A 2010 IUCN study found that one-fifth of vertebrates were at risk.

    Dr Collen says people have wrongly tended to ignore spineless creatures, thinking of them as small, abundant and invulnerable to human pressures.

    Until now, conservation spending has focused on high-profile species such as eagles, tigers and polar bears.

    "This report tries to put invertebrates on the map," he said.

    Invertebrates make up almost 80 per cent of the world's species.

    The report focused on the current state of the planet.

    The projected increase in the world's human population to 9 billion by 2050 from 7 billion now and other factors such as man-made climate change could make things worse for invertebrates.

    The report, which assessed 12,000 species in the IUCN's Red List of endangered species, called for a switch to "green accounting" to ensure that the benefits of services provided by small creatures are built into national accounts such as GDP.

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  9. THERE IS NO WAY BARNETT CAN DO ANYTHING ABOUT THE ROAD TO JPP BEFORE THE ELECTION.

    http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/newshome/14725419/budget-shocks-in-iron-ore-price-woe/

    The tumbling iron ore price threatens to punch a $1.5 billion hole in the State Budget, putting widespread public service lay-offs, cuts to services and delays in major projects on the agenda.

    ReplyDelete
  10. IF THE STATE IS IN SO MUCH DEBT AND CAN'T EVEN DO THIS :

    http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/breaking/14727455/horizon-averts-pilbara-power-crisis/

    Regional utility Horizon Power has averted a threatened power crisis in the Pilbara, but has been forced to pay double the price for its electricity as it considers longer-term needs for the resource-rich region.

    With mining giants who generate power for the area no longer having spare capacity, Horizon had asked the State Government for $400 million to build a new plant to supply electricity to growing towns such as Port Hedland. However Treasury was said to be opposed to the plan, because it would have added to the State's growing debt.

    Instead, Horizon has managed to sign a temporary three-year contract with Alinta for spare electricity from one of its Pilbara plants, in addition to installing an extra small 20 megawatt gas-fired generator. This means Horizon will have to outlay less up-front capital, but spend a greater amount on its day-to-day operations over time.

    With domestic gas prices surging, the deal has come at a cost.


    HOW ARE THEY GOING TO FUND THIS?

    http://www.kimberleypage.com.au/2012/09/opinion-robin-chapple-on-point-torment/#more-27141

    Point Torment has been firmly in the sights of developers since 2005 when the Regional Minerals Program of the Department of Minerals and Petroleum (DMP) released its ‘Developing the West Kimberley’s Resources’ report.

    This document identified the infrastructure required to develop a bauxite mine at Mitchell Plateau and an alumina refinery and industrial port at Point Torment. Links were clearly established between using the natural gas resources of the Browse Basin to power the proposed alumina refinery and heavy industrial area to be based at Point Torment.

    When Rey Resources announced its brown coal reserves in the Fitzroy River floodplain they added they could use Point Torment as a port terminal for its coal resources.

    Regrettably, but not surprisingly, Torment spit, including Point Torment, was not included in the West Kimberley National Heritage listed area that was proclaimed by the Federal Minister for the Environment Hon Tony Burke MP in August 2011.


    UNLESS,OF COURSE,THE CHINESE ARE GOING TO BUILD IT.


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  11. ALSO FROM :

    http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/breaking/14727455/horizon-averts-pilbara-power-crisis/

    The deal is one of the most high-profile trickle downs from increasing domestic gas prices.

    Although the terms are confidential, in 2009 the North West Shelf project partners are understood to have won the legal right to charge Alinta up to three times the prevailing gas price, or about $8 a gigajoule, reflecting their higher costs.

    Alinta has now sought to pass some of these on to Horizon.

    Domestic gas users complain that these higher costs are deterring industry in the State.
    However global petroleum giants say the costs of building new projects and exploring for gas have surged, and they should not have to subsidise WA businesses.

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